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Binéfar vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Binéfar
Binéfar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
12/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 14Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Binéfar45%
×Draw28%
Caspe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binéfar
1.29
Caspe
0.94

Binéfar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 83 away

creates per match

Binéfar
1.48
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Binéfar
0.98
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw
73%
Binéfar or Caspe
72%
Draw or Caspe
55%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+
20%
Caspe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals
72%
Binéfar 2+ goals
37%
Binéfar 3+ goals
14%
Caspe 1+ goals
61%
Caspe 2+ goals
24%
Caspe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)
62%
Caspe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Caspe attack 0.89 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Binéfar scores more
45%
level
28%
Caspe scores more
27%

Binéfar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binéfar vs Caspe

Binéfar beat Caspe 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Los Olmos in Binéfar.