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Čáslav vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
6/2/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 29Stadion Pod hrádkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Čáslav37%
×Draw23%
Vysoké Mýto40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
1.67
Vysoké Mýto
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
60%
Čáslav or Vysoké Mýto
77%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
63%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
19%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
81%
Čáslav 2+ goals
50%
Čáslav 3+ goals
23%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
83%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
52%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
48%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Čáslav scores more
37%
level
23%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
40%

Vysoké Mýto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Čáslav 2–2 Vysoké Mýto

Čáslav and Vysoké Mýto drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod hrádkem in Čáslav.