Čáslav 2–3 Spoje Praha: Result & Stats

Čáslav

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Spoje Praha

11/12/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Stadion Pod hrádkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Čáslav56%

×Draw22%

Spoje Praha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČáslavExpected goals in this matchSpoje Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.09

Čáslav

1.90

Spoje Praha

1.09

Čáslav creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

2.01

creates per match

0.80

1.39

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Čáslav

2.01

Spoje Praha

0.80

allows per match

Čáslav

1.39

Spoje Praha

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par

Spoje Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Spoje Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw

78%

Čáslav or Spoje Praha

78%

Draw or Spoje Praha

44%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+

33%

Spoje Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals

85%

Čáslav 2+ goals

56%

Čáslav 3+ goals

29%

Spoje Praha 1+ goals

66%

Spoje Praha 2+ goals

30%

Spoje Praha 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)

72%

Spoje Praha (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Spoje Praha away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Spoje Praha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Spoje Praha attack 0.80 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Čáslav scores more

56%

level

22%

Spoje Praha scores more

22%

Čáslav at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff