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Čáslav vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
PST
14:30
Ostrá
Ostrá
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 20Stadion Pod hrádkem (Sportovní areál Vodranty) (Čáslav)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Čáslav45%
×Draw23%
Ostrá32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
1.75
Ostrá
1.44

Čáslav creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 6 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
68%
Čáslav or Ostrá
77%
Draw or Ostrá
55%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
24%
Ostrá wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
83%
Čáslav 2+ goals
52%
Čáslav 3+ goals
25%
Ostrá 1+ goals
76%
Ostrá 2+ goals
42%
Ostrá 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
59%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Čáslav scores more
45%
level
23%
Ostrá scores more
32%

Čáslav at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Čáslav vs Ostrá — Match Preview

Čáslav face Ostrá on April 5, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Čáslav host Ostrá at Stadion Pod hrádkem (Sportovní areál Vodranty) (Čáslav).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.