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Čáslav vs Chrudim II — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chrudim II
Chrudim II
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 17Stadion Pod hrádkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Čáslav51%
×Draw22%
Chrudim II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
1.95
Chrudim II
1.35

Čáslav creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Chrudim II
1.31

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Chrudim II
1.89

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Chrudim II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Chrudim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
73%
Čáslav or Chrudim II
78%
Draw or Chrudim II
49%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
29%
Chrudim II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
86%
Čáslav 2+ goals
58%
Čáslav 3+ goals
31%
Chrudim II 1+ goals
74%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
39%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
66%
Chrudim II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Chrudim II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Chrudim II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

Chrudim II attack 1.31 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Čáslav scores more
51%
level
22%
Chrudim II scores more
27%

Čáslav at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Čáslav 1–3 Chrudim II

Chrudim II beat Čáslav 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod hrádkem in Čáslav.