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Haka vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
5/24/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 3Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haka62%
×Draw21%
KPV Kokkola18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.08
KPV Kokkola
1.02

Haka creates 104% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Haka
2.71
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

Haka
0.89
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Haka or draw
82%
Haka or KPV Kokkola
79%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
38%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
38%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
87%
Haka 2+ goals
61%
Haka 3+ goals
34%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
64%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
27%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
78%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.71 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.08

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + Haka defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Haka scores more
62%
level
21%
KPV Kokkola scores more
18%

Haka at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Haka 3–1 KPV Kokkola

Haka beat KPV Kokkola 3-1 in Ykkönen on May 24, 2018.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä (Valkeakoski).