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Nest-Sotra vs Ham-Kam — 1. Division 2018

Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
4/14/20191. Division1. Division · Round 3Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nest-Sotra44%
×Draw26%
Ham-Kam30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nest-Sotra
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.18

Nest-Sotra creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nest-Sotra
1.60
Ham-Kam
1.42

allows per match

Nest-Sotra
0.93
Ham-Kam
1.33

finishing

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par
Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nest-Sotra ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nest-Sotra or draw
70%
Nest-Sotra or Ham-Kam
74%
Draw or Ham-Kam
56%

Winning margin

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
21%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
77%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
43%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
18%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
69%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
33%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
59%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nest-Sotra at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nest-Sotra attack 1.60 + Ham-Kam defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ham-Kam attack 1.42 + Nest-Sotra defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nest-Sotra scores more
44%
level
26%
Ham-Kam scores more
30%

Nest-Sotra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nest-Sotra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nest-Sotra vs Ham-Kam

Nest-Sotra beat Ham-Kam 2-0 in 1. Division on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Ågotnes Stadion (Ågotnes).