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Cascavel vs Avenida — Serie D 2018

Cascavel
Cascavel
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avenida
Avenida
7/21/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cascavel52%
×Draw26%
Avenida21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cascavel
1.48
Avenida
0.84

Cascavel creates 76% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cascavel
1.29
Avenida
0.75

allows per match

Cascavel
0.94
Avenida
1.67

finishing

Cascavel+0.00on par
Avenida+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cascavel ↓

Avenida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cascavel or draw
79%
Cascavel or Avenida
74%
Draw or Avenida
48%

Winning margin

Cascavel wins by 2+
27%
Avenida wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cascavel 1+ goals
77%
Cascavel 2+ goals
43%
Cascavel 3+ goals
19%
Avenida 1+ goals
57%
Avenida 2+ goals
21%
Avenida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cascavel (draw refunded)
71%
Avenida (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cascavel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Avenida away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cascavel attack 1.29 + Avenida defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avenida attack 0.75 + Cascavel defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cascavel scores more
52%
level
26%
Avenida scores more
21%

Cascavel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cascavel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cascavel vs Avenida

Cascavel beat Avenida 3-0 in Serie D on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta in Cascavel, Paraná.