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Cascavel U20 vs Araucaria U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Cascavel U20
Cascavel U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Araucaria U20
Araucaria U20
4/27/2026Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cascavel U2057%
×Draw22%
Araucaria U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cascavel U20
1.94
Araucaria U20
1.10

Cascavel U20 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cascavel U20
2.15
Araucaria U20
1.24

allows per match

Cascavel U20
0.96
Araucaria U20
1.72

finishing

Cascavel U20+0.00on par
Araucaria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cascavel U20 ↓

Araucaria U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cascavel U20 or draw
79%
Cascavel U20 or Araucaria U20
78%
Draw or Araucaria U20
43%

Winning margin

Cascavel U20 wins by 2+
33%
Araucaria U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cascavel U20 1+ goals
86%
Cascavel U20 2+ goals
58%
Cascavel U20 3+ goals
30%
Araucaria U20 1+ goals
67%
Araucaria U20 2+ goals
30%
Araucaria U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cascavel U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Araucaria U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cascavel U20 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Araucaria U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cascavel U20 attack 2.15 + Araucaria U20 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

Araucaria U20 attack 1.24 + Cascavel U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cascavel U20 scores more
57%
level
22%
Araucaria U20 scores more
21%

Cascavel U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cascavel U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Cascavel U20 1–1 Araucaria U20

Cascavel U20 and Araucaria U20 drew 1-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 27, 2026.