Casalarreina 5–1 Alberite: Result & Stats

Casalarreina

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alberite

10/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Campo de Fútbol El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Casalarreina60%

×Draw20%

Alberite20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CasalarreinaExpected goals in this matchAlberite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.22

Casalarreina

2.21

Alberite

1.22

Casalarreina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

1.81

creates per match

0.85

1.58

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Casalarreina

1.81

Alberite

0.85

allows per match

Casalarreina

1.58

Alberite

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par

Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Alberite →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw

80%

Casalarreina or Alberite

80%

Draw or Alberite

40%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+

37%

Alberite wins by 2+

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals

89%

Casalarreina 2+ goals

65%

Casalarreina 3+ goals

38%

Alberite 1+ goals

70%

Alberite 2+ goals

34%

Alberite 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)

75%

Alberite (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.21

Alberite attack 0.85 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Casalarreina scores more

60%

level

20%

Alberite scores more

20%

Casalarreina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff