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Casa Sport vs Jaraaf — Ligue 1 2019

Casa Sport
Casa Sport
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jaraaf
Jaraaf
12/10/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade régional de Kolda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Casa Sport35%
×Draw35%
Jaraaf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Sport
0.84
Jaraaf
0.75

Casa Sport creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Casa Sport
1.02
Jaraaf
0.94

allows per match

Casa Sport
0.57
Jaraaf
0.67

finishing

Casa Sport+0.00on par
Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Sport ↓

Jaraaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Casa Sport or draw
70%
Casa Sport or Jaraaf
65%
Draw or Jaraaf
65%

Winning margin

Casa Sport wins by 2+
12%
Jaraaf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Casa Sport 1+ goals
57%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
21%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
5%
Jaraaf 1+ goals
53%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
17%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Casa Sport (draw refunded)
54%
Jaraaf (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.57 · 89 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Sport attack 1.02 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.84

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Casa Sport defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Casa Sport scores more
35%
level
35%
Jaraaf scores more
30%

Casa Sport at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Casa Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Casa Sport 1–2 Jaraaf

Jaraaf beat Casa Sport 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade régional de Kolda in Kolda.