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Casa Sport vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

Casa Sport
Casa Sport
FT
0 – 0
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
6/20/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Aline Sitoé Diatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Casa Sport53%
×Draw30%
CNEPS Excellence17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Sport
1.25
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

Casa Sport creates 123% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

creates per match

Casa Sport
1.02
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

Casa Sport
0.57
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

Casa Sport+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Sport ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Casa Sport or draw
83%
Casa Sport or CNEPS Excellence
70%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
47%

Winning margin

Casa Sport wins by 2+
25%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Casa Sport 1+ goals
71%
Casa Sport 2+ goals
36%
Casa Sport 3+ goals
13%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
43%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
11%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Casa Sport (draw refunded)
76%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.57 · 89 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Sport attack 1.02 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Casa Sport defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Casa Sport scores more
53%
level
30%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
17%

Casa Sport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Casa Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Sport vs CNEPS Excellence

Casa Sport and CNEPS Excellence drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Aline Sitoé Diatta in Ziguinchor.