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Casa Pia vs Vizela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
1 – 3
Vizela
Vizela
W. Kenidy 88'
D. Ribeiro 81'
Samu Corral 52'
F. Okoli 19'
10/20/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Casa Pia36%
×Draw25%
Vizela39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.39
Vizela
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
2.20
Vizela
1.71

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.20
Vizela
0.57

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Vizela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
61%
Casa Pia or Vizela
75%
Draw or Vizela
64%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
16%
Vizela wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
75%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
40%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
16%
Vizela 1+ goals
77%
Vizela 2+ goals
43%
Vizela 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
48%
Vizela (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Vizela defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vizela attack 1.71 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Casa Pia scores more
36%
level
25%
Vizela scores more
39%

Vizela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
F. Okoli
52'
Samu Corral
81'
D. Ribeiro
88'
W. Kenidy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Casa Pia 1–3 Vizela

Vizela beat Casa Pia 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2019.

Goals: F. Okoli (19'), Samu Corral (52'), D. Ribeiro (81'), W. Kenidy (88').

The match was played at Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema in Lisboa.