Casa Pia 2–0 Valadares Gaia: Result & Stats

Casa Pia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Valadares Gaia

11/9/2022

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Casa Pia49%

×Draw23%

Valadares Gaia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa PiaExpected goals in this matchValadares Gaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Casa Pia

1.77

Valadares Gaia

1.27

Casa Pia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.20

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Casa Pia

2.20

Valadares Gaia

1.33

allows per match

Casa Pia

1.20

Valadares Gaia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Valadares Gaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Valadares Gaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw

72%

Casa Pia or Valadares Gaia

77%

Draw or Valadares Gaia

51%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+

27%

Valadares Gaia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals

83%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

53%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

26%

Valadares Gaia 1+ goals

72%

Valadares Gaia 2+ goals

36%

Valadares Gaia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

64%

Valadares Gaia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Valadares Gaia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Valadares Gaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Valadares Gaia attack 1.33 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Casa Pia scores more

49%

level

23%

Valadares Gaia scores more

28%

Casa Pia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff