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Casa Pia vs Olímpico do Montijo — Taça de Portugal 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
2 – 0
Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
9/30/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Pina Manique (Lisboa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Casa Pia45%
×Draw23%
Olímpico do Montijo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.77
Olímpico do Montijo
1.44

Casa Pia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
2.20
Olímpico do Montijo
1.67

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.20
Olímpico do Montijo
1.33

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
69%
Casa Pia or Olímpico do Montijo
77%
Draw or Olímpico do Montijo
55%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
24%
Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
83%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
53%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
26%
Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
76%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
42%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
59%
Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Olímpico do Montijo attack 1.67 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Casa Pia scores more
45%
level
23%
Olímpico do Montijo scores more
31%

Casa Pia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Olímpico do Montijo

Casa Pia beat Olímpico do Montijo 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Pina Manique (Lisboa).