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Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
2/22/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 23Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Casa Pia27%
×Draw26%
GIL Vicente46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.05
GIL Vicente
1.45

GIL Vicente creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
0.92
GIL Vicente
1.28

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.61
GIL Vicente
1.19

finishing

Casa Pia+0.26scores more
GIL Vicente-0.15scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
54%
Casa Pia or GIL Vicente
74%
Draw or GIL Vicente
73%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
10%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
65%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
28%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
9%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
77%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
42%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
37%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.92 + GIL Vicente defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

GIL Vicente attack 1.28 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Casa Pia scores more
27%
level
26%
GIL Vicente scores more
46%

GIL Vicente at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente

Casa Pia beat GIL Vicente 1-0 in Primeira Liga on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.