Casa Pia 1–1 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Casa Pia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cova De Piedade

3/1/2020

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio Pina Manique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Casa Pia48%

×Draw26%

Cova De Piedade26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa PiaExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.01

Casa Pia

1.49

Cova De Piedade

1.01

Casa Pia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

1.35

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Casa Pia

1.35

Cova De Piedade

0.83

allows per match

Casa Pia

1.20

Cova De Piedade

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw

74%

Casa Pia or Cova De Piedade

74%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

52%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+

24%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals

77%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

44%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

19%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

64%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

27%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

65%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 1.35 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Casa Pia scores more

48%

level

26%

Cova De Piedade scores more

26%

Casa Pia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff