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Casa Pia vs Angrense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
2 – 1
Angrense
Angrense
10/21/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Pina Manique (Lisboa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Casa Pia65%
×Draw18%
Angrense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
2.60
Angrense
1.27

Casa Pia creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
2.20
Angrense
1.33

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.20
Angrense
3.00

finishing

Casa Pia+0.00on par
Angrense+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Angrense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
83%
Casa Pia or Angrense
82%
Draw or Angrense
35%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
44%
Angrense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
92%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
73%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
47%
Angrense 1+ goals
72%
Angrense 2+ goals
36%
Angrense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
79%
Angrense (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Angrense away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 2.20 + Angrense defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Angrense attack 1.33 + Casa Pia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Casa Pia scores more
65%
level
18%
Angrense scores more
17%

Casa Pia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Angrense

Casa Pia beat Angrense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Pina Manique (Lisboa).