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CAS de Sévaré vs Stade Malien Bamako — Première Division 2019

CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
FT
1 – 1
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
4/22/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 13Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré14%
×Draw21%
Stade Malien Bamako65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAS de Sévaré
0.74
Stade Malien Bamako
1.92

Stade Malien Bamako creates 159% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 98 away

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
Stade Malien Bamako
1.39

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré
2.44
Stade Malien Bamako
0.59

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw
35%
CAS de Sévaré or Stade Malien Bamako
79%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
86%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
4%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
52%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
17%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
4%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
85%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
57%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
17%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.74

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more
14%
level
21%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
65%

Stade Malien Bamako at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: CAS de Sévaré 1–1 Stade Malien Bamako

CAS de Sévaré and Stade Malien Bamako drew 1-1 in Première Division on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.