CAS de Sévaré 0–5 Réal Bamako: Result & Stats

CAS de Sévaré

FT

0 – 5

Réal Bamako

5/16/2021

Première Division · Round 15Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré17%

×Draw23%

Réal Bamako61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAS de SévaréExpected goals in this matchRéal Bamako

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.79

CAS de Sévaré

0.81

Réal Bamako

1.79

Réal Bamako creates 121% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 99 away

0.89

creates per match

1.15

2.44

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré

0.89

Réal Bamako

1.15

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré

2.44

Réal Bamako

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

Réal Bamako →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw

39%

CAS de Sévaré or Réal Bamako

77%

Draw or Réal Bamako

83%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+

5%

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals

56%

CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals

19%

CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals

5%

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

83%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

53%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)

22%

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Réal Bamako away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + Réal Bamako defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Réal Bamako attack 1.15 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more

17%

level

23%

Réal Bamako scores more

61%

Réal Bamako at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff