Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CAS de Sévaré vs Duguwolofila — Première Division 2019

CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
FT
2 – 3
Duguwolofila
Duguwolofila
3/27/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 8Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré19%
×Draw24%
Duguwolofila57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
Duguwolofila
1.71

Duguwolofila creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 37 away

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
Duguwolofila
0.97

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré
2.44
Duguwolofila
0.89

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par
Duguwolofila+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

Duguwolofila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw
43%
CAS de Sévaré or Duguwolofila
76%
Draw or Duguwolofila
81%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
6%
Duguwolofila wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
59%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
22%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
6%
Duguwolofila 1+ goals
82%
Duguwolofila 2+ goals
51%
Duguwolofila 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
26%
Duguwolofila (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Duguwolofila away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + Duguwolofila defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Duguwolofila attack 0.97 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more
19%
level
24%
Duguwolofila scores more
57%

Duguwolofila at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Duguwolofila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAS de Sévaré vs Duguwolofila

Duguwolofila beat CAS de Sévaré 3-2 in Première Division on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.