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CAS de Sévaré vs ASOM — Première Division 2019

CAS de Sévaré
CAS de Sévaré
FT
1 – 3
ASOM
ASOM
4/2/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 9Stade Baréma Bocoum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CAS de Sévaré25%
×Draw26%
ASOM49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAS de Sévaré
1.01
ASOM
1.53

ASOM creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 38 away

creates per match

CAS de Sévaré
0.89
ASOM
0.63

allows per match

CAS de Sévaré
2.44
ASOM
1.13

finishing

CAS de Sévaré+0.00on par
ASOM+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAS de Sévaré ↓

ASOM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CAS de Sévaré or draw
51%
CAS de Sévaré or ASOM
74%
Draw or ASOM
75%

Winning margin

CAS de Sévaré wins by 2+
9%
ASOM wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

CAS de Sévaré 1+ goals
64%
CAS de Sévaré 2+ goals
27%
CAS de Sévaré 3+ goals
8%
ASOM 1+ goals
78%
ASOM 2+ goals
45%
ASOM 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

CAS de Sévaré (draw refunded)
34%
ASOM (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAS de Sévaré at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

ASOM away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAS de Sévaré attack 0.89 + ASOM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

ASOM attack 0.63 + CAS de Sévaré defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CAS de Sévaré scores more
25%
level
26%
ASOM scores more
49%

ASOM at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ASOM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAS de Sévaré vs ASOM

ASOM beat CAS de Sévaré 3-1 in Première Division on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Baréma Bocoum in Mopti.