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Cartusia Kartuzy vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Cartusia Kartuzy
Cartusia Kartuzy
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Solec K.
Solec K.
5/18/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cartusia Kartuzy50%
×Draw24%
Solec K.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.75
Solec K.
1.19

Cartusia Kartuzy creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.39
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.19
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartusia Kartuzy ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cartusia Kartuzy or draw
74%
Cartusia Kartuzy or Solec K.
76%
Draw or Solec K.
50%

Winning margin

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+
27%
Solec K. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals
83%
Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals
52%
Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals
25%
Solec K. 1+ goals
70%
Solec K. 2+ goals
33%
Solec K. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)
66%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartusia Kartuzy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.39 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more
50%
level
24%
Solec K. scores more
26%

Cartusia Kartuzy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartusia Kartuzy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartusia Kartuzy vs Solec K.

Cartusia Kartuzy beat Solec K. 5-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Kartuzy.