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Cartusia Kartuzy vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Cartusia Kartuzy
Cartusia Kartuzy
FT
0 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
10/6/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Cartusia Kartuzy40%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Szczecin II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.50
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 104 away

creates per match

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.39
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Cartusia Kartuzy
1.19
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartusia Kartuzy ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cartusia Kartuzy or draw
65%
Cartusia Kartuzy or Pogoń Szczecin II
75%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
60%

Winning margin

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+
19%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals
78%
Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals
44%
Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals
19%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
75%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
40%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)
53%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartusia Kartuzy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.39 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more
40%
level
25%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
35%

Cartusia Kartuzy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartusia Kartuzy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartusia Kartuzy vs Pogoń Szczecin II

Cartusia Kartuzy and Pogoń Szczecin II drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Kartuzy.