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Cartigliano vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
9/11/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cartigliano44%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.39
Virtus Bolzano
1.08

Cartigliano creates 29% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
71%
Cartigliano or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
56%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
21%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
75%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
40%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
16%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
66%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
29%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
60%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cartigliano scores more
44%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
29%

Cartigliano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartigliano vs Virtus Bolzano

Cartigliano and Virtus Bolzano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.