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Cartigliano vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
2 – 1
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
9/11/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 3Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cartigliano32%
×Draw24%
Union Feltre44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.37
Union Feltre
1.64

Union Feltre creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
56%
Cartigliano or Union Feltre
76%
Draw or Union Feltre
68%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
14%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
75%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
40%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
16%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
81%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
49%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
42%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cartigliano scores more
32%
level
24%
Union Feltre scores more
44%

Union Feltre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartigliano vs Union Feltre

Cartigliano beat Union Feltre 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano).