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Cartigliano vs Spinea — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Spinea
Spinea
E. Di Gennaro 63', 3'
P. Mariutto 84'
G. Berto 16'
5/15/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartigliano49%
×Draw24%
Spinea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.69
Spinea
1.20

Cartigliano creates 41% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Spinea
1.12

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Spinea
1.94

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Spinea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Spinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
73%
Cartigliano or Spinea
76%
Draw or Spinea
51%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
26%
Spinea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
82%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
50%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
24%
Spinea 1+ goals
70%
Spinea 2+ goals
34%
Spinea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
64%
Spinea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Spinea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Spinea defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Spinea attack 1.12 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cartigliano scores more
49%
level
24%
Spinea scores more
27%

Cartigliano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
E. Di Gennaro
16'
G. Berto
63'
E. Di Gennaro
84'
P. Mariutto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 2–2 Spinea

Cartigliano and Spinea drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on May 15, 2022.

Goals: E. Di Gennaro (3', 63'), G. Berto (16'), P. Mariutto (84').

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.