Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cartigliano vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
1 – 1
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
L. Barzon 12'
L. Moraschi 54'
10/3/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 3Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartigliano54%
×Draw23%
San Martino Speme22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.77
San Martino Speme
1.05

Cartigliano creates 69% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
78%
Cartigliano or San Martino Speme
77%
Draw or San Martino Speme
46%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
30%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
83%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
53%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
26%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
65%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
71%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cartigliano scores more
54%
level
23%
San Martino Speme scores more
22%

Cartigliano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
L. Barzon
54'
L. Moraschi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 1–1 San Martino Speme

Cartigliano and San Martino Speme drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 3, 2021.

Goals: L. Barzon (12'), L. Moraschi (54').

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.