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Cartigliano vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
12/22/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartigliano39%
×Draw26%
Luparense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.36
Luparense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 101 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
66%
Cartigliano or Luparense
74%
Draw or Luparense
61%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
18%
Luparense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
74%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
39%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
16%
Luparense 1+ goals
71%
Luparense 2+ goals
36%
Luparense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
53%
Luparense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Luparense attack 1.21 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cartigliano scores more
39%
level
26%
Luparense scores more
34%

Cartigliano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 1–1 Luparense

Cartigliano and Luparense drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.