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Cartes vs Velarde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cartes
Cartes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Velarde
Velarde
9/30/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Campo de Fútbol El Ansar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartes52%
×Draw25%
Velarde23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartes
1.61
Velarde
0.98

Cartes creates 64% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cartes
1.22
Velarde
0.76

allows per match

Cartes
1.21
Velarde
2.00

finishing

Cartes+0.00on par
Velarde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartes ↓

Velarde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cartes or draw
77%
Cartes or Velarde
75%
Draw or Velarde
48%

Winning margin

Cartes wins by 2+
28%
Velarde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cartes 1+ goals
80%
Cartes 2+ goals
48%
Cartes 3+ goals
22%
Velarde 1+ goals
62%
Velarde 2+ goals
26%
Velarde 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cartes (draw refunded)
69%
Velarde (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Velarde away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartes attack 1.22 + Velarde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Velarde attack 0.76 + Cartes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cartes scores more
52%
level
25%
Velarde scores more
23%

Cartes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cartes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartes vs Velarde

Cartes beat Velarde 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Ansar in Cartes.