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Cartes vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cartes
Cartes
CANC
22:00
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 38Campo de Fútbol El Ansar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Cartes49%
×Draw25%
Textil Escudo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartes
1.56
Textil Escudo
1.04

Cartes creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 56 away

creates per match

Cartes
1.22
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Cartes
1.21
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Cartes+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartes ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cartes or draw
75%
Cartes or Textil Escudo
75%
Draw or Textil Escudo
51%

Winning margin

Cartes wins by 2+
25%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cartes 1+ goals
79%
Cartes 2+ goals
46%
Cartes 3+ goals
21%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
65%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
28%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartes (draw refunded)
66%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartes attack 1.22 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Cartes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cartes scores more
49%
level
25%
Textil Escudo scores more
25%

Cartes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cartes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cartes host Textil Escudo

May 16, 2020: Cartes take on Textil Escudo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cartes host Textil Escudo at Campo de Fútbol El Ansar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.