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Cartes vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cartes
Cartes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Campo de Fútbol El Ansar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Cartes40%
×Draw28%
Siete Villas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartes
1.25
Siete Villas
1.10

Cartes creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Cartes
1.22
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Cartes
1.21
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Cartes+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartes ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartes or draw
68%
Cartes or Siete Villas
72%
Draw or Siete Villas
60%

Winning margin

Cartes wins by 2+
17%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cartes 1+ goals
71%
Cartes 2+ goals
36%
Cartes 3+ goals
13%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
67%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
30%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cartes (draw refunded)
55%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartes attack 1.22 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Cartes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartes scores more
40%
level
28%
Siete Villas scores more
32%

Cartes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cartes 0–2 Siete Villas

Siete Villas beat Cartes 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Ansar in Cartes.