Cartes 2–1 Atlético Mineros: Result & Stats

Cartes

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Mineros

4/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Campo de Fútbol El Ansar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cartes49%

×Draw25%

Atlético Mineros26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CartesExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.06

Cartes

1.55

Atlético Mineros

1.06

Cartes creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

1.22

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cartes

1.22

Atlético Mineros

0.91

allows per match

Cartes

1.21

Atlético Mineros

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartes+0.00on par

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartes ↓

Atlético Mineros →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cartes or draw

74%

Cartes or Atlético Mineros

75%

Draw or Atlético Mineros

51%

Winning margin

Cartes wins by 2+

25%

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cartes 1+ goals

79%

Cartes 2+ goals

46%

Cartes 3+ goals

20%

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartes (draw refunded)

65%

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartes at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartes attack 1.22 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Cartes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cartes scores more

49%

level

25%

Atlético Mineros scores more

26%

Cartes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cartes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff