Cartaya 1–0 Xerez Deportivo: Result & Stats

Cartaya

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xerez Deportivo

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cartaya34%

×Draw30%

Xerez Deportivo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CartayaExpected goals in this matchXerez Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.09

Cartaya

1.06

Xerez Deportivo

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 43 away

1.06

creates per match

1.33

0.86

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Cartaya

1.06

Xerez Deportivo

1.33

allows per match

Cartaya

0.86

Xerez Deportivo

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Xerez Deportivo →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw

64%

Cartaya or Xerez Deportivo

70%

Draw or Xerez Deportivo

66%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+

13%

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals

65%

Cartaya 2+ goals

29%

Cartaya 3+ goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

66%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

30%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)

49%

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cartaya scores more

34%

level

30%

Xerez Deportivo scores more

36%

Xerez Deportivo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff