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Cartaya vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cartaya
Cartaya
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Cartaya42%
×Draw30%
San Roque Lepe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartaya
1.17
San Roque Lepe
0.92

Cartaya creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cartaya
1.06
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Cartaya
0.86
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw
71%
Cartaya or San Roque Lepe
70%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
58%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+
18%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals
69%
Cartaya 2+ goals
33%
Cartaya 3+ goals
11%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
60%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
23%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)
59%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartaya scores more
42%
level
30%
San Roque Lepe scores more
29%

Cartaya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartaya vs San Roque Lepe

Cartaya beat San Roque Lepe 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador in Cartaya.