Cartaya 1–0 Inter Sevilla: Result & Stats

Cartaya

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Sevilla

10/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cartaya51%

×Draw27%

Inter Sevilla22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CartayaExpected goals in this matchInter Sevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.84

Cartaya

1.44

Inter Sevilla

0.84

Cartaya creates 71% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

0.82

0.86

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cartaya

1.06

Inter Sevilla

0.82

allows per match

Cartaya

0.86

Inter Sevilla

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Inter Sevilla →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw

78%

Cartaya or Inter Sevilla

73%

Draw or Inter Sevilla

49%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+

26%

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals

76%

Cartaya 2+ goals

42%

Cartaya 3+ goals

18%

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals

57%

Inter Sevilla 2+ goals

21%

Inter Sevilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)

70%

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cartaya scores more

51%

level

27%

Inter Sevilla scores more

22%

Cartaya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff