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Cartaya vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cartaya
Cartaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
10/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cartaya35%
×Draw31%
Ciudad de Lucena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartaya
0.98
Ciudad de Lucena
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cartaya
1.06
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Cartaya
0.86
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw
66%
Cartaya or Ciudad de Lucena
69%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
65%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+
13%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals
62%
Cartaya 2+ goals
26%
Cartaya 3+ goals
8%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
62%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
25%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)
51%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cartaya scores more
35%
level
31%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
34%

Cartaya at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartaya 1 – 1 Ciudad de Lucena

Cartaya and Ciudad de Lucena drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador in Cartaya.