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Cartaya vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cartaya
Cartaya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Cartaya51%
×Draw26%
Atlético Espeleño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartaya
1.48
Atlético Espeleño
0.89

Cartaya creates 66% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 49 away

creates per match

Cartaya
1.06
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Cartaya
0.86
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw
77%
Cartaya or Atlético Espeleño
74%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
49%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals
77%
Cartaya 2+ goals
43%
Cartaya 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)
69%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cartaya scores more
51%
level
26%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
23%

Cartaya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartaya vs Atlético Espeleño

Cartaya beat Atlético Espeleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador in Cartaya.