Cartagena LU II 1–2 Unión Molinense: Result & Stats

Cartagena LU II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Unión Molinense

9/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II39%

×Draw28%

Unión Molinense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena LU IIExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.08

Cartagena LU II

1.22

Unión Molinense

1.08

Cartagena LU II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.47

creates per match

1.18

0.98

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Cartagena LU II

1.47

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

Cartagena LU II

0.98

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw

68%

Cartagena LU II or Unión Molinense

72%

Draw or Unión Molinense

61%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+

17%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals

70%

Cartagena LU II 2+ goals

34%

Cartagena LU II 3+ goals

12%

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

66%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

29%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)

55%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more

39%

level

28%

Unión Molinense scores more

32%

Cartagena LU II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Unión Molinense

Unión Molinense beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.

Cartagena LU II vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Unión Molinense