Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cartagena LU II vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II44%
×Draw27%
Mazarrón FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.40
Mazarrón FC
1.09

Cartagena LU II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
71%
Cartagena LU II or Mazarrón FC
73%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
56%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
21%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
41%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
17%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
66%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
30%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
60%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
44%
level
27%
Mazarrón FC scores more
29%

Cartagena LU II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena LU II 1 – 0 Mazarrón FC

Cartagena LU II beat Mazarrón FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.