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Cartagena LU II vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Los Garres
Los Garres
9/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena LU II50%
×Draw26%
Los Garres24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.52
Los Garres
0.98

Cartagena LU II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
76%
Cartagena LU II or Los Garres
74%
Draw or Los Garres
50%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
25%
Los Garres wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
78%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
45%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
20%
Los Garres 1+ goals
62%
Los Garres 2+ goals
26%
Los Garres 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
67%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Los Garres attack 0.98 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
50%
level
26%
Los Garres scores more
24%

Cartagena LU II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena LU II 4 – 0 Los Garres

Cartagena LU II beat Los Garres 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.