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Cartagena LU II vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II37%
×Draw27%
Lorca Deportiva37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.27
Lorca Deportiva
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
63%
Cartagena LU II or Lorca Deportiva
73%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
63%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
16%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
72%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
36%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
14%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
72%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
36%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
50%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
37%
level
27%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
37%

Cartagena LU II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Cartagena LU II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.