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Cartagena LU II vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartagena LU II53%
×Draw25%
Huércal Overa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.57
Huércal Overa
0.89

Cartagena LU II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 47 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
79%
Cartagena LU II or Huércal Overa
75%
Draw or Huércal Overa
47%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
28%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
79%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
46%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
21%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
59%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
22%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
71%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
53%
level
25%
Huércal Overa scores more
21%

Cartagena LU II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena LU II 5 – 0 Huércal Overa

Cartagena LU II beat Huércal Overa 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.