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Cartagena LU II vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cartagena LU II49%
×Draw26%
El Palmar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.52
El Palmar
1.00

Cartagena LU II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
75%
Cartagena LU II or El Palmar
74%
Draw or El Palmar
51%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
25%
El Palmar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
78%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
45%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
20%
El Palmar 1+ goals
63%
El Palmar 2+ goals
26%
El Palmar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
66%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
49%
level
26%
El Palmar scores more
25%

Cartagena LU II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena LU II 3–1 El Palmar

Cartagena LU II beat El Palmar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.