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Cartagena LU II vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena LU II
Cartagena LU II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena LU II48%
×Draw26%
Cartagena FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena LU II
1.50
Cartagena FC
1.04

Cartagena LU II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cartagena LU II
1.47
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Cartagena LU II
0.98
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Cartagena LU II+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena LU II ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena LU II or draw
74%
Cartagena LU II or Cartagena FC
74%
Draw or Cartagena FC
52%

Winning margin

Cartagena LU II wins by 2+
24%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cartagena LU II 1+ goals
78%
Cartagena LU II 2+ goals
44%
Cartagena LU II 3+ goals
19%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
65%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
28%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cartagena LU II (draw refunded)
65%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena LU II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena LU II attack 1.47 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Cartagena LU II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cartagena LU II scores more
48%
level
26%
Cartagena FC scores more
26%

Cartagena LU II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cartagena LU II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena LU II vs Cartagena FC

Cartagena LU II beat Cartagena FC 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Pinatar Arena Football Center in San Pedro del Pinatar.