Cartagena II 2–0 Racing Murcia: Result & Stats

Cartagena II

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Murcia

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II45%

×Draw28%

Racing Murcia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena IIExpected goals in this matchRacing Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.99

Cartagena II

1.34

Racing Murcia

0.99

Cartagena II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 62 away

1.63

creates per match

1.13

0.85

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Cartagena II

1.63

Racing Murcia

1.13

allows per match

Cartagena II

0.85

Racing Murcia

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Racing Murcia →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw

72%

Cartagena II or Racing Murcia

72%

Draw or Racing Murcia

55%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+

21%

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals

74%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

39%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

15%

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

63%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

26%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

62%

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cartagena II scores more

45%

level

28%

Racing Murcia scores more

28%

Cartagena II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Racing Murcia

Cartagena II beat Racing Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.

Cartagena II vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cartagena II vs Racing Murcia