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Cartagena II vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
CANC
00:00
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II67%
×Draw20%
Plus Ultra14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
2.09
Plus Ultra
0.82

Cartagena II creates 155% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
86%
Cartagena II or Plus Ultra
80%
Draw or Plus Ultra
33%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
42%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
88%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
62%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
34%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
56%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
20%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
83%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.09

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cartagena II scores more
67%
level
20%
Plus Ultra scores more
14%

Cartagena II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena II vs Plus Ultra — Match Preview

Cartagena II face Plus Ultra on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cartagena II host Plus Ultra at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.