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Cartagena II vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
5 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Estadio Lopez Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II50%
×Draw27%
Olímpico Totana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
1.46
Olímpico Totana
0.92

Cartagena II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
76%
Cartagena II or Olímpico Totana
73%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
50%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
25%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
77%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
43%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
18%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
60%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
23%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
68%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cartagena II scores more
50%
level
27%
Olímpico Totana scores more
24%

Cartagena II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena II 5 – 4 Olímpico Totana

Cartagena II beat Olímpico Totana 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Lopez Belmonte in Cartagena.