Cartagena II 0–0 Mazarrón FC: Result & Stats

Cartagena II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mazarrón FC

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Lopez Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cartagena II48%

×Draw26%

Mazarrón FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartagena IIExpected goals in this matchMazarrón FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.03

Cartagena II

1.48

Mazarrón FC

1.03

Cartagena II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 63 away

1.63

creates per match

1.21

0.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cartagena II

1.63

Mazarrón FC

1.21

allows per match

Cartagena II

0.85

Mazarrón FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Mazarrón FC →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw

74%

Cartagena II or Mazarrón FC

74%

Draw or Mazarrón FC

52%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+

24%

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals

77%

Cartagena II 2+ goals

43%

Cartagena II 3+ goals

19%

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

64%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

28%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)

64%

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cartagena II scores more

48%

level

26%

Mazarrón FC scores more

26%

Cartagena II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena II 0–0 Mazarrón FC

Cartagena II and Mazarrón FC drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Lopez Belmonte in Cartagena.

Cartagena II vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena II 0–0 Mazarrón FC