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Cartagena II vs Lorca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena II
Cartagena II
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Lorca
Lorca
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cartagena II75%
×Draw16%
Lorca9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena II
2.35
Lorca
0.66

Cartagena II creates 256% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cartagena II
1.63
Lorca
0.47

allows per match

Cartagena II
0.85
Lorca
3.07

finishing

Cartagena II+0.00on par
Lorca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena II ↓

Lorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cartagena II or draw
91%
Cartagena II or Lorca
84%
Draw or Lorca
25%

Winning margin

Cartagena II wins by 2+
52%
Lorca wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cartagena II 1+ goals
90%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
68%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
41%
Lorca 1+ goals
48%
Lorca 2+ goals
14%
Lorca 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cartagena II (draw refunded)
90%
Lorca (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Lorca away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena II attack 1.63 + Lorca defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.35

Lorca attack 0.47 + Cartagena II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Cartagena II scores more
75%
level
16%
Lorca scores more
9%

Cartagena II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cartagena II 7–0 Lorca

Cartagena II beat Lorca 7-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Escuela De Fútbol Ciudad Jardín in Cartagena.